Ukrainian Army Crosses Dnipro River, Prepares for Counter-Offensive Against Russian Forces
The Ukrainian army has reportedly taken up positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The ISW said that Russian military bloggers had confirmed that the Ukrainian forces had established stable supply lines to their positions and “regularly conduct sorties in the area,” indicating that there was no Russian control over the area.[0] The crossing of the Dnipro River comes days after reports of a partial Russian retreat in the area, and it marks the first time that Ukrainian forces have crossed the river since the start of the invasion. Analysts have said that Ukraine may be preparing for a counter-offensive to push back on Russian positions and reclaim as much territory as possible.[1]
The crossing of the Dnipro River is considered critical in the battle for the Kherson region, which is crucial for control of Crimea, which the Kremlin annexed in 2014. It would be a significant blow to Russian forces if it is confirmed that Ukrainian soldiers have already broken across the river.[2] The Ukrainian army had previously withdrawn from Kherson city, allowing them to use the Dnipro River as part of their defense.[3] The battle for Kherson is deemed crucial in a bid to control Crimea.
The ISW suggests that Ukraine's positions in the region may indicate that Russian forces do not control islands in the Kinka and Chaika rivers.[4] Russian military bloggers said that Ukraine had not fully occupied the positions but maintained an “episodic presence” in the area. However, the extent and intent of the Ukrainian positions remain unclear, as does Ukraine's ability and willingness to maintain sustained positions in the area.[4]
The Ukrainian army had reportedly used captured Russian TOS-1A Solntsepyok multiple thermobaric rocket launcher in Bakhmut, striking Russian troops in the area.[5] Analysts have said that the Ukrainian army may have crossed the Dnipro River for the first time as soldiers prepare positions to launch a counter-offensive deep into Russian-occupied areas.
The crossing of the Dnipro River comes amid expectations that Ukraine is soon to begin a counter-offensive to push back on Russian positions and reclaim as much territory as possible. The ISW said that footage from Russian military bloggers had offered the first “reliable geolocated imagery of Ukrainian positions” south of the river.[6] The crossing of the Dnipro River marks the first tentative steps towards launching a long-awaited spring offensive to reclaim more territory.[7]
0. “Ukrainian forces have established positions on the east bank of Dnipro in Kherson Oblast” Euromaidan Press, 23 Apr. 2023, https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/04/23/ukrainian-forces-have-established-positions-in-east-bank-of-dnipro-in-kherson-oblast
1. “New Ukraine positions near Kherson could signal spring offensive – report” The Guardian, 23 Apr. 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/23/new-ukraine-positions-near-kherson-could-signal-spring-offensive-report
2. “Ukrainian forces ‘cross crucial river' as they prepare to strike deep into Russian-occupied territory” msnNOW, 23 Apr. 2023, https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukrainian-forces-cross-crucial-river-as-they-prepare-to-strike-deep-into-russian-occupied-territory/ar-AA1adWHB?li=BBoPRmx
3. “Ukrainian army ‘crosses crucial Dnipro River for the first time'” Daily Mail, 24 Apr. 2023, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12005761/Ukrainian-army-crosses-crucial-Dnipro-River-time.html
4. “ISW: Ukrainian military has established positions in east bank Kherson” Meduza, 23 Apr. 2023, https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/04/23/isw-ukrainian-military-has-established-positions-in-east-bank-kherson
5. “Russia’s ‘Most Terrifying’ Weapon Seized By Ukraine; Turns The TOS-1A Thermobaric MLRS Against Invading Forces – Reports” EurAsian Times, 20 Apr. 2023, https://eurasiantimes.com/russias-most-terrifying-weapon-seized-by-ukraine-turns/
6. “Ukrainian Troops Have Landed on the Left Bank of the Dnipro River: ISW” Newsweek, 23 Apr. 2023, https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-troops-dnipro-river-isw-1796103
7. “Military asks for ‘patience' on reports of possible Ukrainian advance in Kherson Oblast” Yahoo Entertainment, 23 Apr. 2023, https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/military-asks-patience-reports-possible-110811140.html
